{"id":13002,"date":"2025-05-14T16:46:17","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T16:46:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/"},"modified":"2025-05-14T16:46:17","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T16:46:17","slug":"how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/","title":{"rendered":"How to Do Realistic SEO Forecasting Step-by-Step (+ Template)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>You\u2019re setting goals. Publishing content. Reporting on growth.<\/p>\n<p>But deep down, you\u2019re still asking: \u201cAre we aiming too high? Too low? Are we even on track?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>That uncertainty is normal \u2014 but it\u2019s also a signal that you need an SEO forecast.<\/p>\n<p>At Backlinko, we do SEO forecasting throughout the year. We use it to map planned content, track production costs, and project traffic and revenue gains.<\/p>\n<p>This approach lets us prioritize effectively. Pivot when content underperforms. And build lasting trust with our stakeholders.<\/p>\n<p>As Leigh McKenzie, our Head of SEO puts it:<\/p>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/01\/leigh-mckenzie.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p>\u201cForecasting is hard, and imperfect, but it\u2019s essential. It forces you to tie effort to outcome. And to build trust, we always present a range (best case, expected case, and failure case), not just a single optimistic projection. That honesty helps us make better decisions \u2014 and earn buy-in.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/01\/leigh-mckenzie.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>This guide gives you two proven forecasting methods.<\/p>\n<p>Plus, a spreadsheet to project SEO traffic in minutes, right now.<\/p>\n<p>Just upload your site\u2019s performance data from Google Search Console (GSC), and this SEO forecasting tool will do the calculation for you:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Linear Regression Forecasting by Backlinko \u2013 Dashboard\" alt=\"Linear Regression Forecasting by Backlinko \u2013 Dashboard\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.74\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/linear-regression-forecasting-by-backlinko-dashboard.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-further-reading.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p>If you\u2019re the kind of person who learns best by doing, you don\u2019t have to wait. Jump right in with our forecasting template.<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Linear Regression Forecasting by Backlinko\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1fZD4ZBLCamPnyDgBk2yVWiMRl_4OUuk1jDnsBQx_jMw\/copy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Download the FREE SEO Forecasting tool now<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Follow along step by step as we break down each method, or just punch in your GSC data and start forecasting right away.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-further-reading.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_81 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-grey ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\">\n<p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\">Table of Contents<\/p>\n<span class=\"ez-toc-title-toggle\"><a href=\"#\" class=\"ez-toc-pull-right ez-toc-btn ez-toc-btn-xs ez-toc-btn-default ez-toc-toggle\" aria-label=\"Toggle Table of Content\"><span class=\"ez-toc-js-icon-con\"><span class=\"\"><span class=\"eztoc-hide\" style=\"display:none;\">Toggle<\/span><span class=\"ez-toc-icon-toggle-span\"><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" class=\"list-377408\" width=\"20px\" height=\"20px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" fill=\"none\"><path d=\"M6 6H4v2h2V6zm14 0H8v2h12V6zM4 11h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2zM4 16h2v2H4v-2zm16 0H8v2h12v-2z\" fill=\"currentColor\"><\/path><\/svg><svg style=\"fill: #999;color:#999\" class=\"arrow-unsorted-368013\" xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" width=\"10px\" height=\"10px\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" version=\"1.2\" baseProfile=\"tiny\"><path d=\"M18.2 9.3l-6.2-6.3-6.2 6.3c-.2.2-.3.4-.3.7s.1.5.3.7c.2.2.4.3.7.3h11c.3 0 .5-.1.7-.3.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7zM5.8 14.7l6.2 6.3 6.2-6.3c.2-.2.3-.5.3-.7s-.1-.5-.3-.7c-.2-.2-.4-.3-.7-.3h-11c-.3 0-.5.1-.7.3-.2.2-.3.5-.3.7s.1.5.3.7z\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/div>\n<nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Quick_Overview_of_SEO_Forecasting_Methods\" >Quick Overview of SEO Forecasting Methods<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Approach_1_Keyword-Based_Forecasting\" >Approach #1: Keyword-Based Forecasting<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Calculate_Forecasted_Traffic_Manually\" >Calculate Forecasted Traffic Manually<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Estimate_Keyword-Based_Traffic_with_Semrush\" >Estimate Keyword-Based Traffic with Semrush<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Approach_2_Statistical_Trend_Analysis\" >Approach #2: Statistical Trend Analysis<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Step_1_Export_Your_Google_Search_Console_Data\" >Step 1: Export Your Google Search Console Data<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Step_2_Import_the_CSV_File_Into_the_Spreadsheet\" >Step 2: Import the CSV File Into the Spreadsheet<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Step_3_Review_Your_12-Month_Forecast\" >Step 3: Review Your 12-Month Forecast<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-9\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Step_4_Adjust_Growth_Scenarios\" >Step 4: Adjust Growth Scenarios<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-10\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#How_to_Present_Your_SEO_Forecast\" >How to Present Your SEO Forecast<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-11\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#1_Start_with_a_Visual_Overview\" >1. Start with a Visual Overview<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-12\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#2_Frame_It_Around_Business_Outcomes\" >2. Frame It Around Business Outcomes<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-13\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#3_Connect_Your_Forecast_to_Potential_Revenue\" >3. Connect Your Forecast to Potential Revenue<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-14\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#4_Be_Transparent_About_Your_Assumptions\" >4. Be Transparent About Your Assumptions<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-15\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#How_to_Keep_Your_Forecast_Accurate\" >How to Keep Your Forecast Accurate<\/a><ul class='ez-toc-list-level-3' ><li class='ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-16\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Review_Your_Forecast_Monthly\" >Review Your Forecast Monthly<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-3'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-17\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Adjust_Your_Assumptions_When_Things_Shift\" >Adjust Your Assumptions When Things Shift<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-18\" href=\"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/2025\/05\/14\/how-to-do-realistic-seo-forecasting-step-by-step-template\/#Ready_to_Turn_Your_Forecast_Into_a_Strategy\" >Ready to Turn Your Forecast Into a Strategy?<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Quick_Overview_of_SEO_Forecasting_Methods\"><\/span>Quick Overview of SEO Forecasting Methods<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>There are two ways to predict your SEO growth:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/seo-forecasting#keyword-based-forecasting\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Keyword-based forecasting<\/a>:<\/strong> great for modeling new topics or page opportunities<\/li>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/seo-forecasting#statistical-trend-analysis\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Statistical trend analysis<\/a>:<\/strong> ideal for projecting growth based on your past SEO performance<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>But, which one should you choose?<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a brief overview:<\/p>\n<div class=\"table-responsive\">\n<table class=\"table table-primary table-striped table-hover\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th scope=\"col\">Scenario<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Keyword-Based Forecasting<\/th>\n<th scope=\"col\">Statistical Trend Analysis<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td scope=\"row\" data-before=\"Scenario\">Your website has steady traffic (24+ months of data)<\/td>\n<td data-before=\"Keyword-Based Forecasting\">\u2713<\/td>\n<td data-before=\"Statistical Trend Analysis\">\u2713<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td scope=\"row\" data-before=\"Scenario\">Your website is fairly new (limited data)<\/td>\n<td data-before=\"Keyword-Based Forecasting\">\u2713<\/td>\n<td data-before=\"Statistical Trend Analysis\">\u2717<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td scope=\"row\" data-before=\"Scenario\">You want to target new\/trending keywords<\/td>\n<td data-before=\"Keyword-Based Forecasting\">\u2713<\/td>\n<td data-before=\"Statistical Trend Analysis\">\u2717<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td scope=\"row\" data-before=\"Scenario\">Your business is seasonal<\/td>\n<td data-before=\"Keyword-Based Forecasting\">\u2713<\/td>\n<td data-before=\"Statistical Trend Analysis\">\u2713<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/div>\n<p>Let\u2019s go through both approaches step by step, starting with the simplest option:<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Approach_1_Keyword-Based_Forecasting\"><\/span>Approach #1: Keyword-Based Forecasting<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/03\/icon-remember-v2.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p>Forecasting SEO traffic based on keywords means predicting how much <a title=\"Organic Traffic: What It Is &amp; How to Increase It (6 Ways)\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/organic-traffic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">organic traffic<\/a> you could earn from specific search terms.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/03\/icon-remember-v2.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>You can make an SEO forecast based on keyword data manually or with an SEO keyword tool.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Calculate_Forecasted_Traffic_Manually\"><\/span>Calculate Forecasted Traffic Manually<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>You can calculate your potential traffic with this simple formula:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__visual-chart backlinko-image\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Estimated Monthly Traffic\" alt=\"Estimated Monthly Traffic\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.46571428571429\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/estimated-monthly-traffic.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>Let\u2019s break this down with an example.<\/p>\n<p>Imagine you\u2019re creating a page targeting the keyword \u201cbest hiking boots for women.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The keyword has a search volume of 10,000 monthly searches<\/p>\n<p>Your current content ranks around position 10, but you\u2019re aiming to improve it to position six after optimizations.<\/p>\n<p>Based on your historical data, you know that pages ranking at position six typically get about 2% <a title=\"What Is Click-Through Rate (CTR)?: And How To Improve It\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/what-is-ctr\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">CTR<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Using the formula:<\/p>\n<p>10,000 \u00d7 2% = <strong>200 estimated monthly visits<\/strong> for that keyword<\/p>\n<p>While this is a simple formula, it comes with limitations.<\/p>\n<p>It doesn\u2019t account for seasonal variations, competition changes, or CTR shifts over time.<\/p>\n<p>If you want to make more sophisticated keyword-based predictions, use tools like Semrush.<\/p>\n<p>Its algorithms are built to provide more nuanced forecasts that account for various factors influencing <a title=\"How to Measure SEO Performance &amp; Results\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/hub\/seo\/seo-results\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SEO performance<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how:<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Estimate_Keyword-Based_Traffic_with_Semrush\"><\/span>Estimate Keyword-Based Traffic with Semrush<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Open Semrush\u2019s <a title=\"Keyword Overview: Discover New Ideas with Keyword Explorer\" href=\"https:\/\/www.semrush.com\/analytics\/keywordoverview\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Keyword Overview<\/a> tool. Enter your target keyword and your domain, and click \u201c<strong>Search<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s say you\u2019re planning to target a new <a title=\"Topic Clusters 101: How to Level Up Your SEO (with Examples)\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/topic-clusters\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">topic cluster<\/a>, \u201cmemory foam mattress\u201d on a mattress brand website, Casper:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Keyword Overview \u2013 Memory foam mattress \u2013 Search\" alt=\"Keyword Overview \u2013 Memory foam mattress \u2013 Search\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.46428571428571\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/keyword-overview-memory-foam-mattress-search.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>After analyzing the keyword and your website, the tool will provide predictions in three areas:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Potential traffic:<\/strong> Estimated monthly visits you could earn from a specific keyword, based on your <a title=\"Free Website Authority Checker (Enter Any Domain or URL)\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/tools\/website-authority\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">website authority<\/a> and expected ranking<\/li>\n<li><strong>Potential topic traffic:<\/strong> Total monthly traffic potential from all keyword variations related to the topic<\/li>\n<li><strong>Potential position:<\/strong> Where your page is likely to rank in the search engine results page (<a title=\"What Are SERPs &amp; Why Are They Important for SEO?\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/hub\/seo\/serps\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SERPs<\/a>), compared to competitors in the top 10<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Keyword Overview \u2013 Memory foam mattress \u2013 Potential stats\" alt=\"Keyword Overview \u2013 Memory foam mattress \u2013 Potential stats\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.73571428571429\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/keyword-overview-memory-foam-mattress-potential-stats.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>So, Semrush predicts that you\u2019ll potentially get 1,000 visitors per month if you target the keyword \u201cmemory foam mattress.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>But there\u2019s 2.6 times more traffic opportunity if you <a title=\"Content Writing 101: How to Create High-Quality Content\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/hub\/content\/writing\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">write high-quality content<\/a> and cover the topic in more depth.<\/p>\n<p>To identify related keyword opportunities, click \u201c<strong>See topic details<\/strong>.\u201d It\u2019ll give you a broader list of related search terms:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Keyword Overview \u2013 Memory foam mattress \u2013 See Topic Details\" alt=\"Keyword Overview \u2013 Memory foam mattress \u2013 See Topic Details\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.76\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/keyword-overview-memory-foam-mattress-see-topic-details.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>When analyzing these keywords, pay attention to the following metrics:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Trend:<\/strong> Is the search volume growing or declining over time<\/li>\n<li><strong>Potential traffic:<\/strong> Estimated visitors for each keyword based on your site\u2019s authority<\/li>\n<li><strong>Personal keyword difficulty (PKD%):<\/strong> How challenging it would be for your specific domain to rank in the top 10<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-note.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> A free Semrush account gives you 10 searches in this tool per day. Or, you can use this link to access a <a title=\"Backlinko &amp; Semrush: 14-day PRO Trial\" href=\"https:\/\/www.semrush.com\/lp\/backlinko-offer\/en\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">14-day trial on a Semrush Pro subscription<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-note.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-further-reading.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p><strong>Interesting read:<\/strong> <a title=\"6-Step Essential Guide to Choosing Keywords\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/hub\/seo\/choosing-keywords\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Choose Keywords: A 6-Step Essential Guide<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-further-reading.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Approach_2_Statistical_Trend_Analysis\"><\/span>Approach #2: Statistical Trend Analysis<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>If your site has at least 16-24 months of traffic data, statistical trend analysis is the most reliable way to forecast growth.<\/p>\n<p>Why?<\/p>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/03\/icon-remember-v2.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p>Statistical trend analysis relies on your actual traffic data. Not guesswork, not keyword volume projections, but how your site has performed over time.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/03\/icon-remember-v2.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>It\u2019s also the most technical method.<\/p>\n<p>Normally, this kind of forecasting would require time series modeling or scraping in Python.<\/p>\n<p>But to make it more accessible, we\u2019ve built a custom SEO forecasting spreadsheet that handles the math for you.<\/p>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-further-reading.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p><a title=\"Linear Regression Forecasting by Backlinko\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1fZD4ZBLCamPnyDgBk2yVWiMRl_4OUuk1jDnsBQx_jMw\/copy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Get your FREE SEO Forecasting Spreadsheet here<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-further-reading.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>We created this template in partnership with Andrew Charlton from <a title=\"Crawl Consultancy\" href=\"http:\/\/crawlconsultancy.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Crawl Consultancy<\/a> to help you run statistical forecasts in just a few clicks.<\/p>\n<p>You don\u2019t need any coding or advanced modeling skills (I\u2019ll guide you exactly how to use it in a bit).<\/p>\n<p>All you need is to import your site\u2019s past performance data. The spreadsheet will show your forecast summary, growth scenarios, and monthly breakdown.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a preview of the dashboard you\u2019ll be working with:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Linear Regression Forecasting by Backlinko \u2013 Dashboard\" alt=\"Linear Regression Forecasting by Backlinko \u2013 Dashboard\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.74\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/linear-regression-forecasting-by-backlinko-dashboard.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>Simple, right?<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how to use this <a title=\"Linear Regression Forecasting by Backlinko\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.google.com\/spreadsheets\/d\/1fZD4ZBLCamPnyDgBk2yVWiMRl_4OUuk1jDnsBQx_jMw\/copy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">SEO forecasting tool<\/a>, step by step:<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Step_1_Export_Your_Google_Search_Console_Data\"><\/span>Step 1: Export Your Google Search Console Data<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>First, get your raw data from GSC. You\u2019ll need the last 16 months of site performance to feed into the model.<\/p>\n<p>Why 16 months of data?<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s the most historical data available in Google Search Console. It\u2019s enough to see seasonal trends and growth patterns.<\/p>\n<p>To get the data from GSC:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Open <a title=\"Google Search Console\" href=\"https:\/\/search.google.com\/search-console\/about\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Google Search Console<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Select your property and go to the \u201c<strong>Performance<\/strong>\u201d tab<\/li>\n<li>Set the date range to cover the <strong>last 16 months<\/strong><\/li>\n<li>Click \u201c<strong>Export<\/strong>\u201d and choose \u201c<strong>Download CSV<\/strong>\u201d<\/li>\n<li>Unzip the file \u2014 you\u2019ll see one named Dates.csv<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Google Search Console \u2013 Backlinko \u2013 Download CSV\" alt=\"Google Search Console \u2013 Backlinko \u2013 Download CSV\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.69285714285714\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/google-search-console-backlinko-download-csv.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Step_2_Import_the_CSV_File_Into_the_Spreadsheet\"><\/span>Step 2: Import the CSV File Into the Spreadsheet<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Now, plug that GSC data into the spreadsheet:<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Go to the <strong>[2] Google Search Console Import<\/strong> tab<\/li>\n<li>Click on the marked cell (usually the top-left of the table)<\/li>\n<li>In Google Sheets, navigate to \u201c<strong>File<\/strong>\u201d &gt; \u201c<strong>Import<\/strong>\u201d and upload your Dates.csv file<\/li>\n<li>Under \u201cImport location,\u201d choose \u201c<strong>Replace data at selected cell<\/strong>\u201d and click \u201c<strong>Import data<\/strong>\u201d<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Import the CSV file into the spreadsheet\" alt=\"Import the CSV file into the spreadsheet\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.68857142857143\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/import-tne-csv-file-into-the-spreadsheet.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>The sheet will clean and structure your click data, group it by month, and feed it into the forecasting model.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Step_3_Review_Your_12-Month_Forecast\"><\/span>Step 3: Review Your 12-Month Forecast<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Once the data\u2019s in, head to the \u201c<strong>Dashboard<\/strong>\u201d tab.<\/p>\n<p>Here, you\u2019ll see:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Your total forecast for the next 12 months<\/li>\n<li>A comparison against your previous 12 months<\/li>\n<li>The year-over-year (YOY) change in clicks and %<\/li>\n<li>A line chart visualizing your predicted traffic over time<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Forecast Summary &amp; Line Chart\" alt=\"Forecast Summary &amp; Line Chart\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.86142857142857\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/forecast-summary-and-line-chart.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-note.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> This forecasting is based on a simple linear regression, making it easy to explain the forecast. Even to non-SEO folks.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-note.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Step_4_Adjust_Growth_Scenarios\"><\/span>Step 4: Adjust Growth Scenarios<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>SEO traffic rarely grows in a straight line. That\u2019s why forecasting different scenarios helps you stay realistic and better prepared.<\/p>\n<p>In the \u201cForecast Adjustments\u201d box, you\u2019ll find two fields:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Conservative Adjustment (%):<\/strong> E.g., -10% for a cautious projection<\/li>\n<li><strong>Aggressive Adjustment (%):<\/strong> E.g., +30% for a stretch goal<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Conservative &amp; Aggressive Adjustment fields for user\" alt=\"Conservative &amp; Aggressive Adjustment fields for user\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.43857142857143\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/conservative-and-aggressive-adjustment-fields-for-user.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>Once you enter values, everything updates automatically \u2014 scenario totals, YOY change, graph lines.<\/p>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-note.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> This lets you test \u201cwhat if\u201d outcomes, which is perfect for stakeholder reporting or planning quarterly targets.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-note.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>But, why do we do this?<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s say your site has been growing at ~5% per month. However, next quarter, you\u2019re planning to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Publish 10 new <a title=\"Blog SEO: The Complete Guide\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/hub\/content\/blog-seo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">optimized blog posts<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Refresh your top-performing <a title=\"What Is Evergreen Content?\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/hub\/content\/evergreen\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">evergreen content<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Run a PR campaign that usually brings <a title=\"7 Top Strategies to Get High Quality Backlinks\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/high-quality-backlinks\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">high-authority backlinks<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-further-reading.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p><strong>Useful resource:<\/strong> <a title=\"How to Write a Press Release That Gets Results\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/write-a-press-release\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">How to Write a Press Release That Gets Results (2025)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-further-reading.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>Based on similar past campaigns, you estimate this could boost your organic traffic by 20-30%.<\/p>\n<p>So, you enter +30% in the Aggressive Adjustment field.<\/p>\n<p>Now imagine the opposite:<\/p>\n<p>Budget cuts slow down content production, or your writer\u2019s on leave.<\/p>\n<p>You\u2019d weigh that in and enter, let\u2019s say, -15% in the Conservative Adjustment to reflect that slowdown.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re not sure what numbers to put in these fields, here are some places to start:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Past internal data:<\/strong> Look at traffic lift from similar initiatives (e.g., \u201clast time we launched 10 blog posts, traffic increased by 18% in two months\u201d)<\/li>\n<li><strong>Operational inputs:<\/strong> Fewer resources, delayed launches, or technical issues? Model that in with a -10% to -20% dip.<\/li>\n<li><strong>External benchmarks:<\/strong> Use data from tools like Semrush, Ahrefs, or industry studies to inform your assumptions (e.g., \u201ccontent updates to your competitors\u2019 sites led to +15% traffic on average\u201d)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Even if your percentages aren\u2019t perfect, the act of modeling a range makes your forecast stronger and way more reliable.<\/p>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_to_Present_Your_SEO_Forecast\"><\/span>How to Present Your SEO Forecast<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A clear presentation turns your traffic projections into a strategic tool. One that you can use to align your team, make a case for investment, or guide quarterly planning.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how to present it effectively:<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"1_Start_with_a_Visual_Overview\"><\/span>1. Start with a Visual Overview<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Begin with a chart that shows your traffic forecast over time \u2014 whether that\u2019s based on keyword data or historical trends.<\/p>\n<p>Why lead with a visual?<\/p>\n<p>Charts turn raw numbers into a clear story. They show trends, dips, and momentum at a glance. Like this:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Traffic Forecast \u2013 Chart\" alt=\"Traffic Forecast \u2013 Chart\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.58571428571429\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/traffic-forecast-chart.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>And this helps stakeholders understand where you\u2019re headed without having to dig into spreadsheets or data tables.<\/p>\n<p>The goal is to answer this question at a glance: \u201cWhat kind of growth are we expecting, and how confident are we in that number?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re using our spreadsheet template, the built-in dashboard does this for you:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Forecast Summary &amp; Line Chart\" alt=\"Forecast Summary &amp; Line Chart\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.86142857142857\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/forecast-summary-and-line-chart.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>You can:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Share your screen and walk through the forecast live<\/li>\n<li>Take a screenshot of the chart and summary and paste it into a report or slide deck<\/li>\n<li>Export the chart as an image to use in a strategy doc<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-tip.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p><strong>Pro tip:<\/strong> If you need something more advanced or reusable, you can recreate the chart in <a title=\"Looker Studio\" href=\"https:\/\/lookerstudio.google.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Google Looker Studio<\/a> \u2014 a free tool for building custom reporting dashboards.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-tip.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>If you\u2019re using Semrush to estimate traffic potential for new content, you can still visualize it.<\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s say you\u2019re targeting the \u201cmemory foam mattress\u201d topic and want to target the following keywords:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>\u201cmemory foam mattress\u201d \u2014 750 potential visits\/month<\/li>\n<li>\u201cqueen memory foam mattress\u201d \u2014 119 potential visits\/month<\/li>\n<li>\u201cking size memory foam mattress\u201d \u2014 33 potential visits\/month<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Keyword Overview \u2013 Memory foam mattress \u2013 Targeting keywords\" alt=\"Keyword Overview \u2013 Memory foam mattress \u2013 Targeting keywords\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.72571428571429\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/keyword-overview-memory-foam-mattress-targeting-keywords.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>Create a new Sheet and enter your keywords and potential monthly visits. A simple one, like this:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Chart for KW-based forecasting \u2013 Data\" alt=\"Chart for KW-based forecasting \u2013 Data\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.56\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/chart-for-kw-based-forecasting-data.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>Then, insert a bar chart to show estimated traffic per topic with potential traffic on the x-axis and each keyword (or topic cluster) on the y-axis.<\/p>\n<p>Like this:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Chart for KW-based forecasting \u2013 Chart\" alt=\"Chart for KW-based forecasting \u2013 Chart\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.63428571428571\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/chart-for-kw-based-forecasting-chart.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-note.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> This gives you and your stakeholders a quick way to see which topics are worth prioritizing. And how much they might contribute to your organic growth.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-note.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"2_Frame_It_Around_Business_Outcomes\"><\/span>2. Frame It Around Business Outcomes<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Don\u2019t just show how traffic might grow.<\/p>\n<p>Show why it matters, too.<\/p>\n<p>In your presentation, lead with:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The expected growth potential<\/li>\n<li>What content or actions will drive that growth<\/li>\n<li>How it supports high-level goals like lead generation, revenue, or product visibility<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The clearer the link between SEO activity and business outcomes, the easier it is to get support and alignment.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"3_Connect_Your_Forecast_to_Potential_Revenue\"><\/span>3. Connect Your Forecast to Potential Revenue<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>While traffic forecasts are powerful, tying them to business results makes them even more persuasive.<\/p>\n<p>If you want to show potential ROI, you can estimate how much revenue your forecasted traffic might drive using a simple formula:<\/p>\n<p><strong>Forecasted Monthly Traffic \u00d7 Conversion Rate \u00d7 Revenue per Conversion = Estimated Monthly Revenue<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Let\u2019s say your forecasted traffic is 10,000 visits per month. Your site\u2019s average conversion rate is 2% and each conversion gets you $150.<\/p>\n<p>Using this formula, your estimated monthly revenue would be:<\/p>\n<p><strong>10,000 \u00d7 0.02 \u00d7 150 = $30,000\/month<\/strong><\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"4_Be_Transparent_About_Your_Assumptions\"><\/span>4. Be Transparent About Your Assumptions<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>A good forecast is grounded in clear logic, and people are more likely to trust it when they understand how you built it.<\/p>\n<p>So, share:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Where your data came from (e.g., GSC, keyword tools)<\/li>\n<li>The method you used (trend analysis, keyword-based, or both)<\/li>\n<li>What each scenario assumes and how flexible it is<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>You don\u2019t need to walk through every formula. Just show that your projections are based on real data and thoughtful decisions.<\/p>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-tip.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p><strong>Why it matters:<\/strong> When your process is transparent, your forecast becomes easier to trust, easier to defend, and more valuable for making decisions.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-tip.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_to_Keep_Your_Forecast_Accurate\"><\/span>How to Keep Your Forecast Accurate<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>A forecast is most valuable when it evolves with your strategy. Regular check-ins help you stay aligned, catch changes early, and refine the strategy.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s how to keep your forecast accurate and useful over time:<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Review_Your_Forecast_Monthly\"><\/span>Review Your Forecast Monthly<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Check in at the end of each month to compare projected vs. actual traffic.<\/p>\n<p>To do so, go to your forecast dashboard and add your actual monthly clicks (from GSC) in a separate column:<\/p>\n<figure class=\"backlinko-image__screenshot backlinko-image backlinko-has-border\">\n<div class=\"backlinko-img-placeholder\"><\/div>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Forecast Dashboard \u2013 Monthly clicks from GSC\" alt=\"Forecast Dashboard \u2013 Monthly clicks from GSC\" data-aspect-ratio=\"0.43285714285714\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2025\/05\/forecast-dashboard-monthly-clicks-from-gsc.png\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/p><\/figure>\n<p>Then, compare the difference between forecasted and actual performance. Make quick notes on anything that influenced the results.<\/p>\n<p>For example, a major content launch, slower publishing, or an unexpected spike.<\/p>\n<p>This helps you understand whether you\u2019re on track or not. Plus, spot the reasons why you\u2019re ahead or behind.<\/p>\n<h3><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Adjust_Your_Assumptions_When_Things_Shift\"><\/span>Adjust Your Assumptions When Things Shift<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Forecasts are based on what you expect to happen. As your <a title=\"What Is a Content Strategy?\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/hub\/content\/content-strategy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">content strategy<\/a> evolves, your assumptions likely do, too.<\/p>\n<p>How to do it:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Revisit your growth rate or scenario modifiers in the spreadsheet (e.g., change +30% aggressive to +20%)<\/li>\n<li>If your traffic consistently trends above or below expectations, update the baseline data or adjust your model<\/li>\n<li>Rerun keyword opportunity analysis if SERPs or seasonality have shifted<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-note.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p><strong>Note:<\/strong> Think of it as recalibrating \u2014 not correcting. These adjustments keep your forecast aligned with the current situation.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-note.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Ready_to_Turn_Your_Forecast_Into_a_Strategy\"><\/span>Ready to Turn Your Forecast Into a Strategy?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Now that you know how much organic traffic you can realistically drive, the next step is planning how to get there.<\/p>\n<p>With the right content, priorities, and execution.<\/p>\n<p>Use your forecast to:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Decide which pages you need to create, update, or expand<\/li>\n<li>Double down on topics and clusters that can move the needle<\/li>\n<li>Set clear KPIs tied to traffic growth, rankings, or business goals<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"sc-quote alert blue-box font-georgia type-normal transparent-img-bg\">\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-sm-down\">\n            <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-further-reading.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">        <\/figure>\n<div class=\"media-body\">\n<blockquote class=\"sc-quote\">\n<p>And if you\u2019re ready to build the strategy to drive your numbers, check out our guide: <a title=\"How to Create an Effective SEO Strategy in 2025\" href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/seo-strategy\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">How to Create an Effective SEO Strategy in 2025<\/a>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<div class=\"media\">\n<figure class=\"sc-picture media-left hidden-md-up\">\n                    <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/app\/uploads\/2024\/06\/icon-further-reading.png\" alt=\"| Craig Hordlow\" loading=\"lazy\" title=\"| Craig Hordlow\">                <\/figure>\n<p>                                <cite class=\"sc-name media-body media-middle\"><br \/>\n                                    <\/cite>\n            <\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/seo-forecasting\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">How to Do Realistic SEO Forecasting Step-by-Step (+ Template)<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/backlinko.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Backlinko<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>You\u2019re setting goals. Publishing content. Reporting on growth. But deep down, you\u2019re still asking: \u201cAre we aiming too high? Too low? Are we even on track?\u201d That uncertainty is normal \u2014 but it\u2019s also a signal that you need an SEO forecast. At Backlinko, we do SEO forecasting throughout the year. We use it to map planned content, track production costs, and project traffic and revenue gains. This approach lets us prioritize effectively. Pivot when content underperforms. And build lasting trust with our stakeholders. As Leigh [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":13003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"h5ap_radio_sources":[],"cybocfi_hide_featured_image":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13002","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-backlinko"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/leigh-mckenzie-W3YVib-600x400.png","featured_image_src_square":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/05\/leigh-mckenzie-W3YVib-600x600.png","author_info":{"display_name":false,"author_link":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/author\/craig\/"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13002","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=13002"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13002\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13003"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=13002"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=13002"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/craighordlow.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=13002"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}